NBP could make the difference between EUR/PLN drifting back up to 4.70 or having a go below 4.5850 – SocGen

A choppy day lies ahead for the Zloty with the National Bank of Poland (NBP) deciding on interest rates. Economists at  Société Générale analyze PLN outlook. 

A hung parliament would support higher EUR/PLN through 4Q23

The consensus is a 25 bps cut, but our EM team believes 50 bps is possible.

The drop in annual CPI to 8.2% creates leeway to cut again, but the size of today’s cut and the bank’s statement could make the difference between EUR/PLN drifting back up towards 4.70 or having a go below 4.5850 (200-DMA).

A hung parliament at the elections next week would support higher EUR/PLN through 4Q23.