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14 Nov 2014
EZ GDP, US retail sales eyed - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - According to Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, there is plenty of event risk for EUR in the advance Q4 Eurozone GDP estimate and US Oct retail sales being key too.
Key Quotes
Australia’s calendar is quiet - for all the local media focus on the G20, we should not expect any market impact. Asia’s data slate includes Malaysia Q3 GDP (f/c 5.6% y/y), Singapore Sep retail sales (f/c-0.7% y/y ex-autos, with any surprise risking a GDP revision), HK GDP and Indian trade data. We are also still waiting for China’s Oct lending data.
There is plenty of event risk for EUR in the advance Q4 Eurozone GDP estimate. Westpac agrees with consensus for 0.1% q/q, 0.7% y/y. A surprise is always possible but contraction should be avoided given Spain has already reported a healthy 0.5% rise and Belgium 0.2%. Italy will be weak (f/c -0.1%) but consensus is for France (5:30pm Syd/2:30pm Sing/HK) and Germany (30 min later) to eke out 0.1% rises. We will also see the final Oct reading on Eurozone CPI, which should remain at 0.4% y/y.
The US data calendar becomes more interesting, with the highlight Oct retail sales. After falls in both headline and underlying measures in Sep, positive readings are expected in Oct. Consensus is 0.2% m/m overall, 0.4% ex-autos & gasoline. Also potentially market-moving is preliminary Nov consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, expected to tick up to 87.5 from 86.9. The stronger USD and the fall in oil prices should be evident in Oct import prices, f/c -1.5% m/m.
Key Quotes
Australia’s calendar is quiet - for all the local media focus on the G20, we should not expect any market impact. Asia’s data slate includes Malaysia Q3 GDP (f/c 5.6% y/y), Singapore Sep retail sales (f/c-0.7% y/y ex-autos, with any surprise risking a GDP revision), HK GDP and Indian trade data. We are also still waiting for China’s Oct lending data.
There is plenty of event risk for EUR in the advance Q4 Eurozone GDP estimate. Westpac agrees with consensus for 0.1% q/q, 0.7% y/y. A surprise is always possible but contraction should be avoided given Spain has already reported a healthy 0.5% rise and Belgium 0.2%. Italy will be weak (f/c -0.1%) but consensus is for France (5:30pm Syd/2:30pm Sing/HK) and Germany (30 min later) to eke out 0.1% rises. We will also see the final Oct reading on Eurozone CPI, which should remain at 0.4% y/y.
The US data calendar becomes more interesting, with the highlight Oct retail sales. After falls in both headline and underlying measures in Sep, positive readings are expected in Oct. Consensus is 0.2% m/m overall, 0.4% ex-autos & gasoline. Also potentially market-moving is preliminary Nov consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, expected to tick up to 87.5 from 86.9. The stronger USD and the fall in oil prices should be evident in Oct import prices, f/c -1.5% m/m.