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2 Apr 2015
Friday’s US Payrolls tilted to the downside – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In light of the recent disappointment from the ADP report, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank Kasper Kirkegaard sees the chance that March Payrolls could surprise to the downside tomorrow.
Key Quotes
“ADP employment fell to 189,000, which, even when assuming a small gain in government jobs, points to downside risk on tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report”.
“ADP numbers tend to be more stable than non-farm payrolls, and the recent decline also fits better with a picture of weak US GDP growth in Q1 (currently tracking 1-1.5%)”.
“It is not unusual that periods of non-farm numbers overshooting ADP numbers are followed by an undershoot afterwards – again pointing to downside risk tomorrow”.
Key Quotes
“ADP employment fell to 189,000, which, even when assuming a small gain in government jobs, points to downside risk on tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report”.
“ADP numbers tend to be more stable than non-farm payrolls, and the recent decline also fits better with a picture of weak US GDP growth in Q1 (currently tracking 1-1.5%)”.
“It is not unusual that periods of non-farm numbers overshooting ADP numbers are followed by an undershoot afterwards – again pointing to downside risk tomorrow”.