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25 Sep 2015
EUR/USD forecast: eyes on US GDP – Commerzbank and TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency is trading on a weaker footing vs. the dollar at the end of the week, taking EUR/USD back to the mid-1.1100s ahead of US GDP figures.
“While additional QE by the end of this year i s our base case and should pressure the EUR lower, we are concerned that EURUSD i s already reflecting this QE risk suggesting a "sell-the-rumour-buy-the-fact" type of reaction. A break below the 1.10 level would strongly signal downside potential to test significant support around 1.08”, suggested strategists at TD Securities.
In addition, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank Axel Rudolph argued the pair “shot back up to the breached support line at 1.1266. Between it and the 1.1332 September 1 high we expect the currency pair to falter and to slip again. In this case the current September lows at 1.1105/1.1088 will be back in the picture. Failure at 1.1088 would trigger a move to the base of the cloud at circa 1.1023 and the psychological 1.1000 region”.
“While additional QE by the end of this year i s our base case and should pressure the EUR lower, we are concerned that EURUSD i s already reflecting this QE risk suggesting a "sell-the-rumour-buy-the-fact" type of reaction. A break below the 1.10 level would strongly signal downside potential to test significant support around 1.08”, suggested strategists at TD Securities.
In addition, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank Axel Rudolph argued the pair “shot back up to the breached support line at 1.1266. Between it and the 1.1332 September 1 high we expect the currency pair to falter and to slip again. In this case the current September lows at 1.1105/1.1088 will be back in the picture. Failure at 1.1088 would trigger a move to the base of the cloud at circa 1.1023 and the psychological 1.1000 region”.