Back
8 Feb 2016
US nonfarm payrolls quells market fears - ANZ
Analysts at ANZ noted the market's positive reaction to the US labour force results.
Key Quotes:
"Despite non-farm payrolls rising by just 151k (mkt: 190k), the overall tone of the US labour force report was positive. The unemployment rate declined 0.1ppt to 4.9% - the first time it has dipped below 5% since the financial crisis. But the most encouraging result was average hourly earnings, which rose by a better than expected 0.5% m/m. This provides further evidence of the nascent improvement in wages growth, with some solid increases coming through in the past six months.
As a result of the solid labour market and trade data, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate is pointing to real GDP growth in Q1 2016 of 2.2% (seasonally adjusted annualised rate), compared to 1.2% previously. The forecast improvement is being driven by higher expectations for both consumer spending and private domestic investment. I
t is of course very early days, and there is plenty of water to go under the bridge before actual Q1 GDP data arrive. But the evidence is increasingly pointing towards a more resilient consumer, with falling unemployment and rising wages. A continuation of these themes would likely help quell fears over US growth prospects."
Key Quotes:
"Despite non-farm payrolls rising by just 151k (mkt: 190k), the overall tone of the US labour force report was positive. The unemployment rate declined 0.1ppt to 4.9% - the first time it has dipped below 5% since the financial crisis. But the most encouraging result was average hourly earnings, which rose by a better than expected 0.5% m/m. This provides further evidence of the nascent improvement in wages growth, with some solid increases coming through in the past six months.
As a result of the solid labour market and trade data, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate is pointing to real GDP growth in Q1 2016 of 2.2% (seasonally adjusted annualised rate), compared to 1.2% previously. The forecast improvement is being driven by higher expectations for both consumer spending and private domestic investment. I
t is of course very early days, and there is plenty of water to go under the bridge before actual Q1 GDP data arrive. But the evidence is increasingly pointing towards a more resilient consumer, with falling unemployment and rising wages. A continuation of these themes would likely help quell fears over US growth prospects."