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21 Mar 2016
Risk recovery more important than data for USD - BNPP
Research Team at BNP Paribas, suggests that the Fed Presidents Lacker and Lockhart speak today and may emphasize the possibility that policy could be tightened in June, even as these comments could be balanced by the more dovish Presidents Evans and Harker on Tuesday.
Key Quotes
“On the data front, the February existing home sales report on Monday is expected to show a retracement after the rather strong levels recorded for January. Similarly, durables goods orders, which were quite strong in January (even after downward revisions in the factory orders report) are likely to show some retracement in Thursday’s February release.
Our forecast for ex transport orders to contract by 0.4% would leave the 3m pace of core orders running at a 0.2% monthly pace. Data remains generally consistent with policy tightening continuing, a point St. Louis Fed President Bullard made in post-FOMC comments on Friday, leaving fluctuations in financial conditions the main driver of Fed tightening expectations, US front-end rates, and the USD itself.”
Key Quotes
“On the data front, the February existing home sales report on Monday is expected to show a retracement after the rather strong levels recorded for January. Similarly, durables goods orders, which were quite strong in January (even after downward revisions in the factory orders report) are likely to show some retracement in Thursday’s February release.
Our forecast for ex transport orders to contract by 0.4% would leave the 3m pace of core orders running at a 0.2% monthly pace. Data remains generally consistent with policy tightening continuing, a point St. Louis Fed President Bullard made in post-FOMC comments on Friday, leaving fluctuations in financial conditions the main driver of Fed tightening expectations, US front-end rates, and the USD itself.”