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25 Nov 2013
Flash: Bearish EUR/USD while 1.3575 holds - TDS
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - EURUSD shows an improved outlook after a close above 1.35 last Friday, although as Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TDS, notes, "the big swings and counter moves in spot make for some difficult interpretations."
Key Quotes
"We think that last mid-week tumble from 1.3575 leaves this area as strong resistance now and the overall pattern of trade suggests that the EUR is consolidating ahead of another slide after having broken down through the base of the four moth bull channel at the start of November. Minor support stands at 1.3510/15 early next week, key daily support is 1.3410/15. We are bearish while 1.3575 holds."
"The early November weekly reversal (bearish engulfing candle line) remains the salient feature of the weekly chart. Alongside the turn lower in the weekly slow stochastic signal (typically coincident with weakness in spot in recent years), we continue to think the main directional risk for the market is to the downside towards 1.30 at least, if only to test the base of the potential channel. Broadly through, we still rather think this is a big, 1.27/1.37 range trade."
Key Quotes
"We think that last mid-week tumble from 1.3575 leaves this area as strong resistance now and the overall pattern of trade suggests that the EUR is consolidating ahead of another slide after having broken down through the base of the four moth bull channel at the start of November. Minor support stands at 1.3510/15 early next week, key daily support is 1.3410/15. We are bearish while 1.3575 holds."
"The early November weekly reversal (bearish engulfing candle line) remains the salient feature of the weekly chart. Alongside the turn lower in the weekly slow stochastic signal (typically coincident with weakness in spot in recent years), we continue to think the main directional risk for the market is to the downside towards 1.30 at least, if only to test the base of the potential channel. Broadly through, we still rather think this is a big, 1.27/1.37 range trade."