US NFP: Market consensus is 182K - Rabobank

Michael Every, Senior Asia-Pacific Strategist at Rabobank, suggests that the market consensus for US payrolls is 182K, down from 211K last month, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%. 

Key Quotes

“Crucially, however, average   earnings are seen up 0.2% m-o-m, down from 0.3% last time, though in y-o-y terms that should still see a tick up from 2.5% to 2.6%, i.e., around two-thirds the level we used to see before the GFC, and even lower than that actually, even if we can no longer see it on our screens due to official data revisions, which conveniently now start the series back in 2007: there’s no sense of history at all, either tragic or farcical, now.”

“We also see US trade data for April, another input into Q2 GDP (likely to be undermined by several recent releases), and then we hear from the Fed’s Harker and Kaplan.”