The Election night timeline - Nomura

Thursday 8 June 22:00 (BST) – The Exit Poll Release. 

Typically a good predictor of the largest party, see section below. 

22:50 – The First Result of Houghton & Sunderland South. This is a safe Labour seat, but with a good amount of UKIP votes. It may be telling if we see the Labour majority improve with the UKIP vote not swinging to the Conservatives as the market assumes. 

23:00 to Midnight – Sunderland Central and Washington & Sunderland West. 

00:00 to 01:00 – One or two more seats declaring. 

01:00 to 02:00 - Roughly 10 or so seats. Tooting the marginal to watch. 

02:00 to 03:00 – 50 more seats. Darlington the marginal to watch. 

03:00 to 04:00 – 190 seats declared by this point. 

05:00 to 06:00 – 450 seats by this point, unless it is within a 10-seat difference we should know who has won.

06:00 onwards – Only if the result is within one or two seats in our forecast would we be still hanging on at this point. 

11:00 – Final swing seat. 

15:00 – Typically when you have the final reporting seat.