AUD/USD: breaking below a key channel support area, end of bullish run?

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7965, down -0.35% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8037 and low at 0.7964.

AUD/USD lost traction on the 0.80 handle after supply from the Asian high at 0.8035, (where the Friday high was made), and made for a gradual decline to the figure. 

Fresh offers mounted up and the bulls lost their commitments at 0.7990. 0.7980 was a strong level of support in London although the rally back into the 0.7990's was faded and the bears took back control down to the a key area of support on the daily chart, (20-d sma 0.7971), where the ascending channel support line is located.

The correlation between the US ten years rising and copper prices falling is evident on the move in the Aussie while the value of the Australian currency makes for greater momentum in moves to the downside ahead of this week's RBA minutes and the FOMC. 

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AUD/USD levels

In a clean break below the 20-day sma at 0.7971 and a subsequent follow-through below the 3-month uptrend at 0.7957, the bears would be on track to target the 50-day SMA level around the 0.7920 regions. (50-day sma)  On the wide,  0.7808 is the 14th August low, guarding previous levels of resistance in Feb and March highs at 0.7750. 

Should the bullish trend remain intact throughout the forthcoming major risk events this week, a break of the 0.80 handle and beyond 0.81 the figure, overhead lies the 0.8162/66 May 2015 peak and a 50% retracement level. On the wide, 0.8295 is the January 2015 high.