Aggressive trade policies by the Trump administration present risks - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura noted that the changes in taxes and increased federal spending are likely to boost growth in 2018 and into 2019. 

Key Quotes:

"Recent positive supply-side trends suggest that potential growth has increased modestly. 

We expect strong growth to continue to push down the unemployment rate over the forecast horizon. 

Core inflation should pick up gradually as labour markets tighten and the economy runs modestly above potential in 2018 and 2019. 

Reflecting the strengthening late-cycle outlook, we expect four hikes from the FOMC in 2018 and two additional hikes in 2019. 

The Fed balance sheet roll-off is likely to continue in the background, raising long-term interest rates only gradually. 

A sharp deterioration in financial conditions and aggressive trade policies by the Trump administration present notable risks."