Gold risk reversals regain topside bias
- Gold (xAU/USD) one-month risk reversals turn positive (adopt bullish bias).
- The metal runs into trendline resistance.
Gold's (XAU/USD) sharp rise from $1320 to $1,340 seems to have revived interest in XAU calls (bullish bets).
The one-month 25 delta risk reversals (XAU1MRR) are being paid at 0.10 XAU calls (gold bullish bets) vs. 0.05 XAU puts (bearish bets) yesterday and 0.5 XAU puts seen on Mar. 1. The rise in the implied volatility premium for XAU calls indicates investors expect the safe haven yellow metal to extend gains in the short-run and hence are seeking upside protection (buying XAU calls).
As of writing, gold is trading at $1,336/Oz. A break above $1,341 (resistance of the trendline sloping higher from the Dec. 12 low and Feb. 8 low) would confirm the metal has bottomed out at $1,30, as indicated by long-tailed doji candle of Mar. 1.
XAU1MRR chart
