US data reviewed, Initial jobless claims/ Philly Fed survey - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura noted and reviewed the US key data from Thursday.

Key Quotes:

"Initial jobless claims:

Initial claims fell 1k to 232k for the week ending 14 April. Initial claims have been trending down since picking up by 24k to 242k in the last week of March. The four-week moving average of initial claims reached 231k."

"Although currently higher than their average in March, we expect initial claims to gradually come down as incoming data point to a healthy labor market. Continuing claims fell 15k to 1863k for the week ending 7 April. As this reading of initial claims corresponds with the BLS survey week for nonfarm payroll employment growth, the subdued reading of 232k points to another solid month of employment gains."

"Philly Fed survey: 

The Philly Fed manufacturing index increased 0.9pp to 23.2, slightly above expectations (Nomura: 21.5, Consensus: 21.0). Overall, the report showed continued growth from the manufacturing sector at a slightly quicker pace. The details showed some moderation in new orders (-17.3pp to 18.4) and shipments (-8.5pp to 23.9), indicating perhaps slightly less near-term momentum. Meanwhile, the prices paid index increased 13.8pp to 56.4, the highest reading since 2011, pointing to sustained input price pressures. 

The prices received index increased 9.1pp to 29.8, indicating that at least some of the upstream price pressure is being passed on. Employment indicators were broadly positive with a pickup in the number of employees and the average workweek. Similar to the Empire State survey, capital expenditure expectations moderated for the second month in a row, decreasing 6.1pp to 29.8. The April report did not reference trade or tariffs. However, the six-month ahead index for new orders declined while the forward looking prices paid index increased, a pattern consistent with the Empire State April survey that could represent some concern among manufacturers about decreased demand and rising prices from tariffs. However, overall, manufacturers remain optimistic."