AUD/NZD: On the verge of a major breakout to the downside, targetting 1.0235/50

• AUD/NZD has been consolidated in thin holiday trade as traders get set for the first potential catalyst for the Aussie this week that may come from the RBA minutes.
• AUD/NZD is currently trading at 1.0404, up from 1.0382 and a high from 1.0416. 

AUD/NZD is taking its cues from a number of factors, but in the main, the pair has started to consolidate the Aug 2018 downtrend in 2019, albeit with a tendency to extend the downside as the Kiwi takes up the bid on a more neutral sounded RBNZ than the RBA. "RBNZ sounded slightly more dovish than November, reintroducing “next OCR move could be up or down” language. However, they didn’t go as far as markets expected and the NZD and swap rates rebounded sharply," analysts at Westpac explained. 

RBA minutes: 

For the day ahead, the RBA minutes are in focus but its whether or not they will reveal why the policy statement was so much more upbeat than the RBA event itself. 

"The Minutes of the RBA Policy meeting on 5 February ‘should’ be a non-event after all was revealed in the subsequent switch-to neutral Governor speech the next day, and the February 8 Statement on Monetary Policy slashed growth forecasts and delayed yet again the return to target for core inflation," analysts at TD Securities explained. 

AUD/NZD levels

At this juncture, the cross is consolidated around the daily pivot point submerged by bearish moving averages with a techncial bias to the downside. The price is also below the weekly supporting trend line from early 2015 business as well as the June 2017 horizontal support line which has been tested properly on two occasions, the second of which resulted in a strong correction from the bulls. On a third attempt, bears may have the edge as stale bids dry up. A break of S3 located at 1.03374 will likely encourage bears to trail stops lower, targetting 9 Sep weekly fractal swing low, reinforcing the bearish bias as bulls are squeezed out. On the upside, bulls need traction above weekly R2 located at 1.0615 currently - (If today's RBA minutes are non-event, the week ahead holds Aussie jobs and wages).