USD/JPY: Risks are for another leg lower – Westpac

Robert Rennie, Head of FM Strategy at Westpac, suggests that we have yet to see any obvious signs of heightened commentary over the strength of the JPY, but with US tariffs for the first wave of approximately US$144bn coming into effect at 15% this weekend and a possible vote of confidence in the UK government as early as next week, it’s hard to see what will stop the ¥ from strengthening further.

Key Quotes

“So while we see 105 as acting as short term support, unless the BoJ is willing to ‘tweak’ policy and/or the MoF to commence ‘verbal’ intervention, risks are for another leg lower in USD/JPY.”

“Thus we will stick with last week’s view that sub105, USD/JPY is a buy. However, through September, we see this level giving way as the ¥ takes on more of a safe haven role.”