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10 Jun 2014
Key events in Asia - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, shares his take on the upcoming risk events for this Tuesday.
Key Quotes
Australia’s data week commences at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK with Apr housing finance approvals and May NAB business sentiment. We see home loan approvals continuing a topping out process after strong growth in mid-2013, with a headline around flat (median +0.2% m/m). In coming months, we look for owner-occupier demand to fall, given the slide in sentiment surveys. AUD should pay little attention.
Business sentiment has been more resilient than consumer confidence around the budget, with the headline NAB confidence measure +6 in Apr, versus readings near or below zero in the year leading up to the Sep 2013 election. But we tend to look at the conditions index for a reading on respondents’ own business. This printed at 0.3 in Apr, close to the average of the past 5 years but well below the 20 year average of 4.5. The survey is not forecast but occasionally moves AUD by about 20 pips.
China’s May CPI and PPI (11:30am Syd/9:30am local) should be of limited concern, with no sign that inflation will be high enough to impact on the PBoC monetary policy stance. Consensus is 2.4% y/y versus 1.8% y/y in Apr, with base effects boosting the headline but -1.5% y/y on PPI indicative of a lack of pipeline price pressure. China’s new loans data is due sometime this week.
The US calendar should have little impact: the May NFIB small business survey and Apr wholesale sales & inventories. The Fed goes quiet ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.
Key Quotes
Australia’s data week commences at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK with Apr housing finance approvals and May NAB business sentiment. We see home loan approvals continuing a topping out process after strong growth in mid-2013, with a headline around flat (median +0.2% m/m). In coming months, we look for owner-occupier demand to fall, given the slide in sentiment surveys. AUD should pay little attention.
Business sentiment has been more resilient than consumer confidence around the budget, with the headline NAB confidence measure +6 in Apr, versus readings near or below zero in the year leading up to the Sep 2013 election. But we tend to look at the conditions index for a reading on respondents’ own business. This printed at 0.3 in Apr, close to the average of the past 5 years but well below the 20 year average of 4.5. The survey is not forecast but occasionally moves AUD by about 20 pips.
China’s May CPI and PPI (11:30am Syd/9:30am local) should be of limited concern, with no sign that inflation will be high enough to impact on the PBoC monetary policy stance. Consensus is 2.4% y/y versus 1.8% y/y in Apr, with base effects boosting the headline but -1.5% y/y on PPI indicative of a lack of pipeline price pressure. China’s new loans data is due sometime this week.
The US calendar should have little impact: the May NFIB small business survey and Apr wholesale sales & inventories. The Fed goes quiet ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.