Global economy to contract by 2% in 2020, recovery to be U–shaped – Reuters poll

The latest Reuters of economists from across the globe showed that the global economy is expected to see the sharpest contract on record in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic-led lockdowns and stall in business activity.

Key findings

“Most major economies were in the midst of a severe economic downturn and their recoveries were predicted to be U-shaped.

More than 55% or 87 of 155 economists said the global economic recovery would be U-shaped. Thirty-one analysts said it would be V-shaped and 24 said it be more like a check mark. A few respondents expected a W- or L- shape.

The global economy was forecast to shrink 2.0% this year, compared to a 1.2% contraction predicted just three weeks ago and growth of 1.6% forecast before that in the March 20 poll, underscoring how fast the outlook has deteriorated.

Forecasts ranged between +0.6% and -6.0%.

Global growth next year was forecast to bounce back to 4.5%.

Nearly 90% of economists, or 147 of 165, said the risks to their forecasts for the second half of 2020 were skewed more to the downside, suggesting the outlook is likely to be downgraded again if the pandemic worsens.”