S&P 500: Peak at the 61.8% retracement of the Q1 collapse at 2934 – Credit Suisse

The S&P 500 has gapped higher, leaving the market pushing above the beginning of the ‘ideal’ recovery objective/resistance at 2879/83, although significantly analysts at Credit Suisse note on lower volume. 

Key quotes

“A test of the 63-day average at 2904 is still seen likely, potentially the 61.8% retracement of the Q1 collapse at 2934, but our view remains unchanged to look for a peak in this 2883/2934 zone.” 

“Should strength instead above 2934 this would open the door to a move to 2986, potentially a test of the pivotal 200-day average, now at 3007.” 

“Support moves to 2853 initially, then the lower of yesterday’s price gap at 2843/37, which needs to hold to maintain an immediate upside bias.” 

“VIX is expected to fall back to support at 27.27/22.60, the ‘neckline’ to the 2019/2020 large base, 78.6% retracement and 200-day average. We look for a fresh floor here.”