US: April data exceptionally soft – NBF

Government-mandated lockdowns kept American consumers at home during April, and brick-and-mortar retailers reeling, Krishen Rangasamy from the National Bank of Canada informs.

Key quotes

“The US Census Bureau confirmed this morning the damage was more significant than expected as total retail sales plunged a record 16.4% in April, and that after an 8.3% decline the prior month.” 

“A rebound can be expected for brick-and-mortar retailers in May considering some states eased lockdowns during that month, but don’t expect all losses of the prior two months to be recouped.” 

“April’s decline for retail sales and industrial production (-11% month on month, also reported this morning) are much in line with our view US real GDP will contract more than 30% annualized in Q2.”