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26 Apr 2013
Euro looking to US to break the range
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The euro has been trading within a weekly range delimited by 1.31 and 1.30, with a couple of exceptions below the latter, but it is fair to say that the bulk of the trade kept the range.
The anaemia of data demotivated both bears and bulls until today, where the Annualized US GDP for the first quarter is posed to be the long-waited market-mover.
… Which way?
Once again, the near-term swings in the EUR/USD would come from ‘abroad’, as the recent US dollar strength would be put to the test. A strong print would surely boost the greenback, giving market participants green light to start pricing in a sooner-than-expected exit strategy by the Fed from the ongoing QE programme. Despite the Fed’s recent announcements that the monetary policy will remain accommodative, an above-expectations result should not be ignored and would surely eclipse previous statements.
On the opposite side of the road, it is also true that risk-associated assets could find in a solid GDP print the basis for a bull run, adding fuel to the late rally in the stock markets and commodities.
At the moment, the cross is transiting the bottom of the channel delimited by 1.30 and 1.32 since early April.
The initial support is located around 1.2950/75, where sit the 200-day moving average, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the February-April decline and January lows. A breach of that area would then target December lows around 1.2880/85 en route to 1.2740 (2013 lows).
On the upside, the initial hurdle would be 1.3057 (55-day moving average) followed by 1.3116 (38.2% retracement) and then 1.3150/55 (channel support line and the 38.2%
The anaemia of data demotivated both bears and bulls until today, where the Annualized US GDP for the first quarter is posed to be the long-waited market-mover.
… Which way?
Once again, the near-term swings in the EUR/USD would come from ‘abroad’, as the recent US dollar strength would be put to the test. A strong print would surely boost the greenback, giving market participants green light to start pricing in a sooner-than-expected exit strategy by the Fed from the ongoing QE programme. Despite the Fed’s recent announcements that the monetary policy will remain accommodative, an above-expectations result should not be ignored and would surely eclipse previous statements.
On the opposite side of the road, it is also true that risk-associated assets could find in a solid GDP print the basis for a bull run, adding fuel to the late rally in the stock markets and commodities.
At the moment, the cross is transiting the bottom of the channel delimited by 1.30 and 1.32 since early April.
The initial support is located around 1.2950/75, where sit the 200-day moving average, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the February-April decline and January lows. A breach of that area would then target December lows around 1.2880/85 en route to 1.2740 (2013 lows).
On the upside, the initial hurdle would be 1.3057 (55-day moving average) followed by 1.3116 (38.2% retracement) and then 1.3150/55 (channel support line and the 38.2%