NZD/USD set to retest of the YTD low at 0.6230/13 – Credit Suisse

NZD/USD is showing further weakness below 0.6568/76. Economists at Credit Suisse look for a further downside to develop from here.

Further downside

“NZD/USD is showing further weakness following its rejection of the May highs at 0.6568/76. We thus stay with our tactically negative position, supported by the falling 55-day and 200-day moving averages, as well as by daily MACD momentum turning lower. “

“Immediate support moves to 0.6378/62 and then further below to 0.6310/6288, which we expect to eventually break and enable a retest of major retracement support and the YTD low at 0.6230/13.” 

“A sustained close above the May highs and the 55-day moving average at 0.6568/86 would negate our tactically bearish view and indicate yet another mean-reversion within the broader 2021/22 downtrend, similar to the July/Oct 2021 and Jan/April 2022 recoveries. However, this is not our base case.”