Australia: Real Q2 retail sales to increase by a robust pace of 2.0% q/q – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offered a brief preview of the final version of the monthly retail sales figures from Australia, scheduled for release during the Asian session on Wednesday. The data might influence the aussie and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair.

Key Quotes:

“Nominal Q2 retail sales was strong, up 3.2% q/q, albeit boosted by higher prices of goods and services. Nonetheless, we expect real Q2 retail sales to still increase by a still-robust pace of 2.0% q/q (cons: 1.2%, Q1: 1.2%) which should give a boost to Q2 GDP. “

“If real retail sales surprise strongly to the upside, this gives RBA room to continue its aggressive pace of rate hikes given the underlying strength in consumer spending. We expect the RBA to hike by another 50bps at the September meeting.”